The Party Line

Politics
12:00 am
Thu July 12, 2012

Runoff Elections A Snoozer For Most Of Us

For most North Carolinians, this time of the year is a time to focus on summer vacations, hitting the lake for some fishing, pool time, or just trying to stay cool. 

But for a few folks—and I mean a very few—their focus is on securing a spot on the November ballot in next week’s second primary election.

In the American electoral system, many elections are determined by the “first-past-the-post” system of winning. If the top-vote getter receives one more vote than the second-place candidate, the top vote-getter wins. 

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Politics
12:00 am
Mon July 9, 2012

GOP Legislature Hits Walk-Off Homer To Defeat Democrats

Now that the North Carolina General Assembly session has ended, it appears that one thing is clear: The final inning of the session included three strikeouts for the Democrats and Governor Perdue. There were also an error and a couple of switch-hitters, all based on a significant GOP triple play.

The push came at the very end.

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Election 2012
12:00 am
Fri July 6, 2012

Kissell Has Reason To Be Concerned

Word is out that the Black Leadership Caucus in North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District has decided to withhold its support for incumbent Democrat Larry Kissell.

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Politics
12:00 am
Thu July 5, 2012

Health Care Ruling More Like A 4-1-4 Decision

In some of the best-known lines in constitutional law, Chief Justice John Marshall declared that it is…

“emphatically the province and duty of the Judicial Department [the judicial branch] to say what the law is. Those who apply the rule to particular cases must, of necessity, expound and interpret that rule. If two laws conflict with each other, the Courts must decide on the operation of each.”

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Politics
12:00 am
Thu June 28, 2012

Health Care Decision Adds Fuel To Campaigns

I think the Supreme Court’s decision is certainly a legal and policy win for Obama, but it may be a bigger political win for Romney.  The decision is almost certainly going to inflame the Tea Party faction of the GOP, which is determined to repeal this decision, and if Romney can tap into that anger and harness it for November, he would certainly shore up any lingering conservative doubts about his candidacy. 

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Politics
12:00 am
Wed June 13, 2012

Candidates' Spending Spree Could Get Tiresome

Both the Romney and Obama campaigns raked in substantial amounts of money for May. For Obama, it was $60 million, while Romney and the Republicans were able to collect more than $76 million, the first time the GOP had topped the president and the Democrats in fundraising.

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Politics
12:00 am
Thu June 7, 2012

NC An Inelastic Study In Political Science

Click to enlarge

In a recent posting on his New York Times blog fivethirtyeight, Nate Silver differentiates between “swing states,” which conventional wisdom has described North Carolina as being, and “elastic states,” which Silver believes is a better descriptor.

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Politics
12:00 am
Tue June 5, 2012

Great Time To Be A Political Stat Nerd

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As a political scientist, I am sort of a “number cruncher” who likes to empirically test what we know about human behavior through statistical analysis.  With the election results certified by the N.C. Secretary of State, I ran some statistical analyses on the county-wide results to see what, if anything, might explain things from the May primary.

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Politics
12:00 am
Fri June 1, 2012

Can The Presidential Race Be That Tight This Early? Yup.

Gallup Polling released a great set of data on their weekly tracking of the presidential race, with a 46-46 tie between the Democrat and Republican.  For the most part, it tracks with what other polls are saying about the Obama-Romney contest: with five months to go, it’s pretty much tied up with very few folks undecided. 

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The Party Line
12:00 am
Wed May 30, 2012

Third Parties Need A Face To Succeed

Gallup Poll of Party Identification

In my previous post, I wrote about the failure of Americans Elect to secure a candidate for their third party attempt at the 2012 elections.  Along with the formal rules of the game, Americans Elect apparently could not get over its own rules: The viability of candidates to win the group’s primary process. 

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