The Party Line

Election 2012
12:00 am
Fri July 6, 2012

Kissell Has Reason To Be Concerned

Word is out that the Black Leadership Caucus in North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District has decided to withhold its support for incumbent Democrat Larry Kissell.

Read more
Politics
12:00 am
Thu July 5, 2012

Health Care Ruling More Like A 4-1-4 Decision

In some of the best-known lines in constitutional law, Chief Justice John Marshall declared that it is…

“emphatically the province and duty of the Judicial Department [the judicial branch] to say what the law is. Those who apply the rule to particular cases must, of necessity, expound and interpret that rule. If two laws conflict with each other, the Courts must decide on the operation of each.”

Read more
Politics
12:00 am
Thu June 28, 2012

Health Care Decision Adds Fuel To Campaigns

I think the Supreme Court’s decision is certainly a legal and policy win for Obama, but it may be a bigger political win for Romney.  The decision is almost certainly going to inflame the Tea Party faction of the GOP, which is determined to repeal this decision, and if Romney can tap into that anger and harness it for November, he would certainly shore up any lingering conservative doubts about his candidacy. 

Read more
Politics
12:00 am
Wed June 13, 2012

Candidates' Spending Spree Could Get Tiresome

Both the Romney and Obama campaigns raked in substantial amounts of money for May. For Obama, it was $60 million, while Romney and the Republicans were able to collect more than $76 million, the first time the GOP had topped the president and the Democrats in fundraising.

Read more
Politics
12:00 am
Thu June 7, 2012

NC An Inelastic Study In Political Science

Click to enlarge

In a recent posting on his New York Times blog fivethirtyeight, Nate Silver differentiates between “swing states,” which conventional wisdom has described North Carolina as being, and “elastic states,” which Silver believes is a better descriptor.

Read more
Politics
12:00 am
Tue June 5, 2012

Great Time To Be A Political Stat Nerd

Click to enlarge

As a political scientist, I am sort of a “number cruncher” who likes to empirically test what we know about human behavior through statistical analysis.  With the election results certified by the N.C. Secretary of State, I ran some statistical analyses on the county-wide results to see what, if anything, might explain things from the May primary.

Read more
Politics
12:00 am
Fri June 1, 2012

Can The Presidential Race Be That Tight This Early? Yup.

Gallup Polling released a great set of data on their weekly tracking of the presidential race, with a 46-46 tie between the Democrat and Republican.  For the most part, it tracks with what other polls are saying about the Obama-Romney contest: with five months to go, it’s pretty much tied up with very few folks undecided. 

Read more
The Party Line
12:00 am
Wed May 30, 2012

Third Parties Need A Face To Succeed

Gallup Poll of Party Identification

In my previous post, I wrote about the failure of Americans Elect to secure a candidate for their third party attempt at the 2012 elections.  Along with the formal rules of the game, Americans Elect apparently could not get over its own rules: The viability of candidates to win the group’s primary process. 

Read more
The Party Line
12:00 am
Thu May 24, 2012

Two-Party System Successfully Blocks Competition

I was sitting in my office reading the news that third-party Americans Elect failed to secure a viable candidate when I got an e-mail from Julie Rose of WFAE, hoping for some insight on the issue.

Read more
The Party Line
12:00 am
Mon May 21, 2012

Yellow-Dog Democrats Still Influential, But Waning

In my last two postings, “Pebbles” posed some interesting questions about the May primary election that I thought would make for some good feedback and responses:

Pebbles: “I’d be interested to know if the counties that voted against the amendment have more registered Democrats, Republicans, or Independents.”

Read more

Pages