Michael Bitzer

Political Columnist

Dr. Michael Bitzer is an associate professor of politics and history at Catawba College, where he also serves as the 2011-2012 Swink Professor for Excellence in Classroom Teaching and the chair of the department of history & politics.  A native South Carolinian, he holds graduate degrees in both history and political science from Clemson University and The University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs. Dr. Bitzer’s studies have focused on Southern politics, campaigns and elections, and a variety of topics in American politics.

As many presumptive presidential candidates are heavily engaged in the ‘invisible primary’ process right now, the key caucus activity of this phase of the race for the 2016 White House is fundraising.

And if 2014 is any indication, 2016 should break all fundraising records.

Now that we’re through the “chief executive’s wish list” phase of the legislative year, both for the nation and the North Carolina, the comparison between the two give us a hint as to how both President Barack Obama and Governor Pat McCrory are setting the agenda for the coming year.

Just two months ago, President Obama and the Democrats suffered a sixth-year shellacking, with Republicans picking up large numbers in both congressional chambers.

Imagine the surprise, then, on both sides of the political aisle when a freed president came into his penultimate State of the Union address and pronounced what may have been the most liberal statement of values of his presidency.

With the mid-term election year fought out between Democrats and Republicans, we can now turn our attention to a brand new year, along with a fresh round of new political fights. But this year, as prelude to the 2016 presidential election year, will probably focus more on intra-party battles as opposed to what we saw in 2014.

Now that the NC State Board of Elections has gathered the final data from the 100 counties for the 2014 general election, some patterns exist to give us a better sense of the details of this year’s electoral contest.

First, 2014’s mid-term seems to fit a growing pattern of competitiveness in North Carolina’s elections, and will most likely continue in 2016. In looking at the presidential, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial races since 2008, the average margin of victory is 5.6 percent. 

When the framers devised a governing system, the one thing they feared the most—and sought to avoid at all costs—was allowing any one entity to gain or control too much power.

The reason being, in the words of James Madison, was found within human nature — that the acquisition of power typically leads to wanting more power. So why not use the same principle in trying to ensure that one group doesn’t get more power: in Madison’s words in Federalist 51, “ambition must be made to counteract ambition.”

Now that the mid-term 2014 election is behind us, some thoughts and reflections before we move on to 2016.

First, the results are what most would have expected. We’re still awaiting the final data from the state Board of Elections as to the partisan and racial composition of those who cast ballots, but the exit poll results give some hint of a mid-term electorate that wasn’t like a presidential year.

Now that we have phase one of the voting process completed in North Carolina, namely the in-person early voting, all that we have to do is await the final results on Tuesday’s Election Day.

In 2008’s and 2012, 61 percent of the ballots cast came before Election Day, with thirty-eight percent coming in on Election Day.

But in 2010, only 35 percent of the ballots came before Election Day, while in 2006, only 21 percent came early.

With the first four days of in-person early voting under way, the number of voters showing up to cast ballots in North Carolina indicates that there appears to be an energy level that may be running against the grain of conventional wisdom.

With three weeks to go, a lot of prognostication is going on in the political analysis universe.

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